Crypto Weekly Roundup: The Waiting Game

Disclaimer: This post contains the thoughts of a medium stupid person (me) on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

This will be a quicker one as we’re in a consolidation phase right now, and the only new project I’m really excited about is DMT and Sanko. I broke down the bull case here in case you haven’t gotten a chance to read it.

Sometimes the hardest thing to do is sit on your hands and keep reading about new stuff without acting on it. No major changes until major changes are called for.

It was a relatively uneventful week as crypto markets took a breath from a blowout three-week rally that shocked even most bulls. Crypto has been outpacing the Nasdaq all year, and it’s clear that the ETF narrative continues to drive substantial flows.

There’s also been a bit of consolidation of Bitcoin dominance as we’ve seen various mini-rotations play out across Arbitrum, Solana, and the Link Marines.

View of the Market:

Overall it’s a somewhat boring time. I can’t draw lines very well, but it seems to me that as long as Bitcoin continues to trade above that $32k level, we’re in the early innings of a bull run.

I don’t expect this narrative to change much until the official ETF announcement and the start of trading. It sounds like that could be anywhere from a few weeks to a few months away. The big downside risk is obviously that the ETF gets denied, but that seems highly unlikely based on everything Blackrock and even Gensler are saying.

Until we get that decision, good coins have made themselves known and I’m just trying to keep as much beta on while smaller projects I can rotate into later find their footing.

Some Light Reading:

• Kraken is Building an L2? I guess so. I don’t totally understand what the end game is for these things, and I’m long-term bearish on Base as well. Other than the equivalent of an ecosystem fund, why would you build on a chain run by a corporation? We’ll see I guess.

• The Vitalik L2 Breakdown: This is one of those posts that reminds me that I am definitely too stupid to pretend I know stuff about crypto. What strikes me about it though, is that there is virtually nothing coming within the next two years to definitively improve the ETH L1 experience, or a concrete plan to move the majority of activity down to one of the L2s. It seems even Vitalik isn’t sure of the timeline or roadmap for this coming bull run. I just don’t believe the L2 experience is going to catch up with the alt L1 chains in that short of a time frame, assuming the alt L1s can attract some degree of liquidity in the next bull run. TLDR: while ETH may well win long term, the L1 trade is likely to repeat this cycle due to cheaper market caps, and this will entrench Ethereum competitors long-term.

One Good Meme: