Crypto Weekly Roundup: Making Plans

Disclaimer: This post contains the thoughts of a medium stupid person (me) on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

This week was an interesting one. Bitcoin is now much higher than most bulls would have hoped for a month ago, but you can feel the anxiety in the air.

Everyone is still comparing the fractal to 2019, constantly looking for rotations, and hedging their words to build in some room for a dump.

I have made very few changes in the last six weeks, and it’s mostly worked out quite well.

My position has broadly been that the Coin Telegraph intern post revealed which alts the market liked (Solana ecosystem, TAO, and TIA basically) and it hasn’t really deviated even in the face of what we think is massive Alameda selling in Solana’s case. (They should be at least halfway done with the unlocked SOL at this point btw so hopefully over soon).

You can see tremors of pumps in AVAX, NEAR and even ETH over the last few days, but mostly Bitcoin is sucking the air out of the room.

So the question now is essentially “will the ETF approval be a sell the news moment”?

Maybe.

But maybe not.

This Time is Different:

There are plenty of good technical analysis and historical reasons to think we’ll face a major flush in the coming weeks, but I really do think people are underestimating what a spot ETF approval would mean.

Blackrock will be providing a vehicle to literally trillions of dollars in capital to access Bitcoin. That’s a vehicle that doesn’t currently exist.

GBTC and MSTR are a poor man’s shadow of BTC, and most of the major pension funds can’t just go to Coinbase and buy spot easily.

But now Blackrock is providing both legitimacy and an on-ramp for Bitcoin to be a true alternative to Gold in a standard institutional portfolio.

If ever there was a time for it to be different, this would be it. That’s supercycle territory.

This basic thought process applies I think:

So I am HODLing. Not because I don’t think we can draw down 40%, but because I only buy spot, and so legally they can’t liquidate me.

I also have to contend with the tax implications of going to cash here, which is the functional equivalent of a 40% drawdown. So while I think Bitcoin all-time highs in Q1 might only be a 30 - 40% chance, when I account for all the variables I just don’t see the value in trying to outsmart myself here.

The only thing I will be considering is selling parabolic alts back into Bitcoin or Solana if they look like they’re ready to distribute for a bit. BONK is on that watchlist after this last giga-pump. I think it probably goes to an insane market cap this cycle, but I’m likely to take profits sooner rather than later and come back once it reaccumulates.

Narrative Rotations:

While BONK has rallied, and I made multiples on GUAC, some of my Solana bags like SHDW and SCS have gotten beaten up badly after parabolic runs. DMT never even pumped.

I like all of my coins and will wait patiently for the market to process how wrong it is about them. Sometimes sitting on your hands sucks, but I have lost far more money chasing the top of trends than I have building conviction in coins and seeing it through.

So the question is “what else should you be watching?”

The basic narratives with some legs right now as far as I can see are as follows:

• Solana/Solana Ecosystem: Bonk continues to lead all memes, and while some of the coins that ran really hard have gotten dumped, I think it’s all pretty standard and nothing has changed. Solana has the attention, and I don’t plan to deviate until I can reevaluate post ETF.

• Bitcoin Ordinals: These are NFTs on Bitcoin and some other stuff I haven’t looked closely at. I don’t really get it, but they’re pumping. I know if I start buying I’ll top it, so you guys have fun. Feel free to screenshot this and dunk on me in six months when I fade generational wealth, but I just don’t care about this. There are better memes.

• AI: TAO has run like crazy and a few coins are floating around making all kinds of promises. I’m probably mid-curving it but it all seems incredibly buzz wordy with bad memes so I don’t understand why I would buy here.

• ETH Meme Coins: This is something I may come back to. I mean the real meme coins like $BITCOIN, $SOLANA, $SPX, and $PEPE, not the fake ones like $OP and $ARB and $MATIC. A bunch of those meme charts look good, but I’m more comfortable in Solana for now.

• AVAX Season: I do think this is coming, but not sure when. There are a lot of cool games coming and Pentoshi is building BEAM there. There were good responses to my tweet back in September if you want to see what the community is excited about. This will be a Q1 look for me, but I think people are sleeping on Avalanche.