Crypto Weekly Roundup: Bend or Break

Disclaimer: This post contains the thoughts of a medium stupid person (me) on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

I thought this newsletter was mostly going to be about the mini-nuke alts are experiencing, but then the US government decided to drop a dozen new things on us last minute.

There is really no other way to start than with a salute to CZ.

Arguably the single biggest overhang on the ETF approval has now been cleared. The DOJ press conference wasn’t particularly interesting, but the SEC suit against Kraken seems to be what kicked off this little sell-off.

It’s clear that the position of the US government is that they only want Blackrock touching crypto for Americans, but the SEC case against Kraken is still weird.

They’re implying that Kraken selling tokens like Solana is itself an investment contract with their end user, and a judge has already ruled in the XRP case that that isn’t true.

We’ll see what happens, but it’s unlikely to be resolved during this bull run, so we should be all systems go for the Bitcoin ETF now either way. The next window for approval appears to be in early January, and there’s always a chance they deny or delay, but everything seems to point to this thing being done. Our catalyst is close, and the bankers will buy our bags at much higher prices.

View of the Market:

It appears that despite what is arguably good news, the market has decided to swiftly reprice all of my favorite cryptocurrencies much much lower. It doesn’t feel great, but it wasn’t necessarily unexpected.

I panicked about a week ago and decided that I’m actually fine just holding through a nuke that seemed likely to come. My portfolio isn’t actually down as bad because I was sized at 35% BTC, 40% SOL, and then 25% smaller alts like DMT, SHDW, BONK, and other Solana ecosystem coins plus some NFTs.

Arguably I am overexposed to alts this early in the cycle, but I have high conviction in every alt I own and am fully prepared for them to go to zero. The key here to me is sizing the bets so that you have enough upside, but you’re not ruined when you miss.

Nothing has altered my conviction on any of my current bags, and so we will simply remain patient while the cycle gets going.

This tweet from Hammer summarizes my basic philosophy really well:

So I’ll just hang tight and try really hard not to do anything (else) stupid.

One Good Meme: